About

Apricus is Latin for open to the sun. This site is for work that can stand in daylight: a model you can open, a note you can argue with, a demonstration that does not hide its assumptions.

The subject is consequential choice under uncertainty. Investment, operations, regulation, competition, geopolitics. The method is to start with a decision, name what moves it, and test the range of outcomes before anyone commits.

Public pieces use public or synthetic data. Live client work stays private until it can be shown without the client in it.

If you have a bounded question and want it modelled, write.